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Measurement

Statistical Significance

Statistical significance tells you whether a test result is a real effect or just random noise. Below it, you are reading tea leaves.

What it means

It is the probability that the difference you are seeing between two variants is not down to chance. Most teams use a 95% confidence threshold — a 1-in-20 chance the result is a fluke.

Why it matters

Acting on insignificant results is how teams ship "winners" that quietly lose money. Significance depends on three things: the size of the effect, the amount of traffic, and how long the test runs. Small effects need lots of traffic to prove. Use a sample-size calculator before you launch, and do not stop early just because the line looks good.

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